Finding the Right Location

I have the privledge of knowing one of the best branding firms out there.  Blake Brand Growers has been guiding Disney for years.  The CEO, Jeff Blake, once told me:  "People choose emotionally and justify intellectually."

We think this is backwards.



The Importance of Choosing Intellectually
I know someone who grew up playing in the mountains around Fairplay. 25 years later he was in a position to build his dream home. $2m and 12 months later it was finished. Unfortunately he didn't think about all the other factors. He never moved in and last I heard, it was listed for $800k.


Places change ... people change!

Breckenridge 1995 to 2005

Aligning our
Client's Profile
with the
Economic, Demographic & Lifestyle
of
58 Mountain Communities

Our Process - 25 year history, 38 categories

Phase One - Identify towns that fulfill the clients needs:


Step 1 - Client Questionnaire
Start with a detailed client profile.  From a brief questionnaire we are able to establish which metrics are important.  Below is a summary of what we work with.

Step 2 - Private, Public & Collegiate Sources
We reseach the economic stability, population trends and lifestyle environments that meet your requirements.
Based on 38 different categories, we identify which mountain communities meet the client's requirements.

Below is an example of how Aspen would score, based on the client's requirements.

Below is an example of the results from all 58 communities, based on the client's requirements.

What else would you like to know?
We also fly to those locations. Some of our best information comes from spending 2-3 days talking to local residents and sitting in the back of city council meetings.

- What is the average $/Sq Ft?
- How successful the local businesses were?
- Is the population growing or decreasing?
- How do the "locals" feel about "outsiders"?
- What is the majority age group?
- Which wealth category do they fall into?
- Quality of schools, hospitals, recreation?

Prices have been increasing, but is it a Good Value?
We are able to assess the true value of a property, down at the development level.  Below are two examples of how prices have been increasing, but the actual value has been decreasing & increasing.

Give us a few weeks, we'll tell you everything you need to know!


Phase Two - The Top 20%

How do we find the property?
Now that you know the location, you can go on the internet and get 80% of what's available.

1. Many times the "public mls" isn't up to date OR the property you're interested in has already been sold.
2. If it's a good value, the agent may not put it in the public mls because they want to try and find their own buyer and earn both commissions.
3. Then there's the "pocket listings".  These are properties that the agent knows the owners want to sell, but they don't want to have a sign out front and endure daily showings.

Accessing the top 20%.

1. We sign a non-compete with the local agents.  They are now assured we will not "steal" their pocket listings.
2. We also research the pre-foreclosure data.  If a property owner is struggling, we'll contact them on your behalf.
3. We access the Realtor mls.  From that we can assess "local" market value, ensuring you don't over pay.

Why hire us?

• We have access to proprietary information.
• Even using the internet, it would take you months or years to research and travel to perspective locations.
• We access properties that you can't.
• Commercial pilots, Business Analysis degrees, 30+ years living in Colorado.

Never Fly Solo

North Fork Valley

Here's an area that's showing strong potential.

 The weather data shows a little less precipitation (snow) than the Colorado average; the temperatures also appear to be a little warmer than any place within a 50 mile radius.

The geographic diversity is very intriguing.  Depending on the direction you head in, you can have either high-plains ranch land, aspen covered mesas with an abundance of water, alpine National Forests, or extremely remote wilderness.  There is also direct access to the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park. 

There are several towns located in this area.  Some are larger than others.  We haven't been able to investigate each one yet, but it appears that there are enough differences that lumping them all together would be a disservice.

Real Estate

Real estate values are very strong but if you're looking for a large choice of multi-million dollar homes, you'll probably have to head over McClure Pass to Aspen.

The Realtors we talked to seemed to have a lot of "pocket listings".  These are properties that they personally know the owners want to sell, but they are not listed on the mls.  Since we are not in the business of listing properties, those Realtors are more than happy to share them with us.  Other Realtors in the area are clearly competition and don't get that access.

Lifestyle Choices

Rich with a mining and ranching history, there also appears to be a strong culinary, vineyard and arts community.  Surrounded on three sides by National Forrest, Wilderness and a National Park; outdoor activities are usually within 15 minutes of any one of the towns.  The only asset not right in your backyard is an international ski area.  The closest would probably be Aspen, about 90 minutes away.

What do we think?

As soon as the FLC Cycling Fantasy Weekend is over, we'll be spending a lot of time in each of those towns.  Our guess is there are a few "gems" in those "pocket listings".  Experiencing the fly fishing, rafting, cycling, rodeos, music festivals, wine tasting, golf, hiking and a few days of just relaxing; could also take quite a bit of time.

Thank you for taking the time to read our blog.  If you have any specific interests, drop us an email. 

Never Fly Solo!

Steamboat- Revisited

Last month there was a big event. Depending on your plans, this could be the time to by property.

If you were looking for the town to grow, that's not going to happen anytime soon.

The Growth Phase of Resort Towns

Step 1: Whenever a resort town reaches a national level of interest, they either step-up-to-the-plate and improve the attributes of the town, or they refuse to do so and stagnate economically.

Step 2: If they improve the attributes (Steamboat has), they then need to address the issue of afforable housing for those who provide the day-to-day services. This is a key moment for those looking to capitalize on the real estate market.

The Short Answer for Steamboat

The affordable housing project was voted down.  Prices have stabilized.  Before you rush in and buy property, there's more to the picture.

Look at the large projects.  The "where" and "what" of the development has a big impact on the value of the surrounding property.  Now add to that the effects of the:
- global economy,
- rental volume,
- the location of local residents,
- sustainability of service businesses,
- schools, hospitals, etc.,
and your purchase could be all wrong.

In other words, the "type" of property, the "location" of the property, AND how the town "functions" on a day-to-day basis, is what you need to look at.

Changes from a year ago
5 bedroom penthouse $1.4M, now $650k
3 Bedroom house       $600k, now $300k
2 Bedroom condo      $650k, now $350k

Conclusion

Steamboat is getting a solid "Green Light". Solid and safe real estate opportunities exist.  The good deals will be a function of the "rate" of return you're looking for.  Short term profits exist, but you need to choose intelligently.  If you want more information, drop us a line.

Never Fly Solo

Warren's New Town

We're going to let you figure this one out for yourselves.

We have a client who likes this area and asked us to find him the perfect property.  As we were doing our research, we came to realize we have to agree.  This place is really nice!

**Hint - At 10607.24 Long:, you only need 1 light to control the flow.**

Here's another hint, the town is not know for a ski resort.  However, you can easily drive to one of three in the time it takes to drive from Denver to Breckenridge. 

What you do have here is a lot of world-class outdoor activity.

Class 3, 4, 5, 6 whitewater

14,000 ft peaks

Big game hunting

Gold metal flyfishing

Mountain and Road biking

Geocaching

access to the Colorado Trail (ok, there's another hint)

4x4 adventures

more than 8 registered Ghost Towns

and a first-class airport

There are several other towns within close proximity and the roads are easily travelled, even during the winter.  The town we visited has a definate small town feel.  The age groups of the population are evenly represented. There's a lot of history and you can find several older residents who are more than willing to share a story.

Real estate is very reasonable; town issues are minimal and tend to give you a chuckle compared to the rest of the world's issues; next month they're even going to have a "Baked Cookie Competition". 

I think while we're looking for our client, there might just be a place on our horizon also.

OK, if you think you know where this is, Leave a Comment.  Thanks for reading.

Never Fly Solo

Crested Butte

For almost 30 years now, the founding partner (Tom) has been experiencing the mountain towns of Colorado.  In the beginning Denver, Boulder, and Castle Rock were separate and distinct.  Going to Telluride, Aspen, or Steamboat was like travelling to Brigadoon.  Few places in Colorado have the ability to transport you back to the glory days of the 1970's - 1980's.  Crested Butte might be as close as you can get!

Before you pack your bags and call us for air transportation, there are a few issues.  The ski area, segregated communities, and environmental concerns, are the three gorillas in the room.

Mt Crested Butte

If you are used to miles of groomed runs.  If your looking for a place where you can turn the kids loose and know they won't get themselves in over their heads.  Mt Crested Butte may not be the place to ski.  As a good friend said, "If you like to drop into a chute and scream woo-hoo (but only when you reach the bottom), Crested Butte gives you that."

For those of us who remember Telluride before the Mountain Village, before the gondola, before scheduled airline flights; this is Crested Butte. (For those who don't, Wikipedia.)  Unfortunately, if you're looking to re-live those days, think hard to everything that came with it.  Getting there was harder, it always seemed to be a little colder, the mountain wasn't very big, service facilities and lodging weren't as plentiful.

It's a 50/50 split, some people want to "fix" this, some don't.  Town council meetings and coffee shop conversations are very lively.

Layout of the Crested Butte

There are three separate locations to Crested Butte.  Mt Crested Butte (ski area), Crested Butte (town), and Crested Butte South (a POA community).  It reminds me of Durango, Hermosa Valley and Purgatory (Durango Mtn Resort) of 1980.  They all have different needs and ideas on how to service them.  One group C.A.V.E (Citizens Against Virtually Everything) seems to have the cheapest and easiest solutions.  Everyone else is working hard, but having a tough time making progress.

Improvements and the Surrounding Area

Where do I start?

• The ski area wants to expand into Snodgrass.  Someone who's not even in the area anymore threw a monkey wrench into the process.
• Some folks in CB South have resurrected the idea of reopening the Pioneer Ski Hill on Cement Mtn.  It had 2,000 ft vertical, a single chair lift and was open from 1939 to 1956.
• There is an extremely aggressive student athletic program.
• Parks and Recreation budget is steadily growing (taxes?)
• Public transportation services are "inching forward".
• Summer tourism is growing and starting to conflict with private lands.
• Arts & music festivals often fill to capacity.  Could be a function of "capacity".
• Modest population growth in the last 10 years.  Seasonal home ownership is up.  That drive the cost of real estate up.  Next comes the affordability housing issue for the people providing services.
• Late night transportation is minimal.  The police department derives a significant amount of revenue from DUI citations.

Summary

So there you have it.  Depending on your family profile and what your plans are for any real estate purchase.  Crested Butte could be The Place or the place to avoid.  Are you looking for nostalgic or a variety of services?  Do you need to generate rental income or is it property that you make memories with?

Our assessment gives Crested Butte a solid " Yellow Light" with a possible detour to another location.

Never Fly Solo!

Conifer, Colorado

Yes, I know. Conifer is not a resort town. We mentioned that we were willing to investigate any location someone might be interested in. Well one of our followers was interested in a "front range bedroom/active retirement" community.

We want to be clear, Conifer is NOT the only community that meets this description. However, when we started getting specific with respect to affordability, local services, ease of travel, etc., Conifer was in the top 3 more than anything else on the list.

Affordability

It used to be that whenever you went into the foothills, the price of the home just went up and you were going to find old summer cabins that have been renovated to include year-round water supplies. Those days are gone, at least within a 45 minute drive to the "flatlands".

Now there are newer, quality designed homes on paved roads. When we performed the reverse trend analysis, some towns weren't as stable as Conifer. We credit this to the recent service and transportation improvements (more on that later). The Bottom line - Conifer home values showed a decrease, but within the realm of 1,2, & 3 sigma analysis, it was a very healthy decrease. (Translate - Home values are not as susceptible to changes in external economic factors. i.e. oil prices, defense budgets, etc).

Some subdivisions did better than others, so seek out a respectable Realtor to show you around. (Yes, we can help you here.)

Local Services

Conifer has always had services for your everyday needs. 20 years ago the choices were very limited and you were better off going into Denver for whatever you needed. From 2000 to 2006, two very large shopping centers were completed. One center was anchored by King Soopers and the other by its competitor Safeway. This created a snowball effect with the previously existing service centers upgrading their locations.

New restaurants, boutique retail stores, medical centers, and national chain services are now available.

Transportation

20 years ago it took right at 1 hour or more to get to the western edge of Littleton/Lakewood. Now that same drive is less than half the time (30 minutes). The original 2 lane, winding canyon road has been straightened, divided and is at least 2 lanes in either direction. Exiting Hwy 285 no longer means risking death from a fast moving semi from behind. Roads leading to subdivisions now have exit lanes and over/under passes.

During the economic prosperity years, home values and the tax base increased. Additional funds were used to install curb, gutters and pave residential roads. Some of these roads access homes above 11,000 feet in elevation.

In addition to road improvements, snow removal equipment has also been enhanced. This is do in large part to the state funds received for every student who attends school. In essence, no student in school means less state funds. Even on snow days.

Never Fly Solo.

Steamboat Springs

Hot Topic
No need to go to the city council meetings to find out what's important in Steamboat.  Just walk into any business establishment and listen.  Everyone from high school students to ski lift operators, clergy to district attorneys are talking about affordable housing, responsible growth and realistic planning.

This proposal did not just pop up.  It's been through a very rigorous process and hopefully will be decided upon early this month.  At stake is the already battered real estate market.  What is being addressed is an affordable housing plan that is attached to a large development which would like to the be annexed to the city.  A decision either way will effect home prices, available skilled labor, taxes, traffic and business growth.

Real Estate
A quick look at real estate shows that most of the sales are at or below what the seller originally paid years ago.  Short sales, bank owned and developer auctions on multimillion dollar properties are becoming more common.  More sales are occurring, but mainly because the price-to-value is so appealing.

Town Atmosphere
One thing that hasn't changes is the outlook of the locals.  They still treat each other and especially tourists with respect and a smile.  We've always liked Steamboat for this very reason.  It's difficult to find world class outdoor recreation, high quality accommodations and a friendly atmosphere in one location.

Maybe it was the Olympics; the recent rescue of Intrawest (who owns the ski mountain) by its parent company, or the fact that several large projects have opened their doors.  Whatever the reason, the good ole' Steamboat friendliness is still there.

Issues to Watch
Changes in employment opportunities, taxes, infrastructure and resident population will set the stage for Steamboat's value.  Trend analysis over the past 50 years has shown a significant paradigm shift approximately every 10 years.  Quite frankly, it's due.  Our viewpoint is there's to much local talent to think it's value will diminish.  We think there's a new wave to be caught in Steamboat, but we're not sure they know what that is.  In spite of all the positive attributes, we're going to give Steamboat a "Yellow Light", at least until we know more at the end of the month.

Never Fly Solo.